Much effort, ink, and brain power has been used this season to explain away Clemson baseball\u2019s heartbreaking defeats.
\nYet again, the Tigers fell to Arizona State in the NCAA Tournament after holding a late lead. In the aftermath of Friday\u2019s 7-5 defeat, people want answers, just as they have all year long.
\nSome simpletons might suggest that \u201cit doesn\u2019t matter, we just stink\u201d (you know who you are) but we\u2019re smarter than that. We have brains. We have numbers. We can explore this a little bit.
\nOften, people point to clutch hitting as the culprit. It\u2019s true the Tigers weren\u2019t great in a couple of critical spots against the Sun Devils, but they had three hits in nine at-bats with runners in scoring position. They scored multiple runs twice. Four players had multiple hits.
\nIt was the kind of offensive game teams have when they win. Alas, a win didn\u2019t happen.
\nYou could go to baserunning proficiency, and many fans often do. The Tigers rank among the ACC\u2019s leaders in stolen base percentage at just a hair under 73 percent for the season. That\u2019s including a game in which Clemson was caught twice in four steal attempts, including once on a pickoff.
\nFrankly, it takes greater context to determine whether a baserunning error was critical or not. Eli White stole second in the first with two outs, but it didn\u2019t matter.
\nSteven Duggar was picked off with one out in the fourth, but Reed Rohlman struck out to end the inning afterwards. That one didn\u2019t seem huge in the big picture.
\nAndrew Cox was thrown out stealing second in the seventh, then White walked. That one seems more serious in retrospect.
\nIn reality, the Tigers didn\u2019t get enough men on base in enough innings to put up a plethora of additional runs. It\u2019s doubtful better baserunning would have fixed that, but it hurts to have runners thrown out. That\u2019s pretty clear.
\nMatthew Crownover had an exceptional start in six innings, then he began to struggle in the seventh. He threw seven straight balls to the fifth and sixth hitters in the order. On a 3-1 pitch, he tried to bring a cutter back onto the outside corner. He missed, and Joey Bielek hit the fastball out to left field.
\nCrownover tried to come back with an offspeed pitch to start off Brian Serven. He hung it, and Serven deposited it out to left. Suddenly, a slim Clemson lead had become a 4-2 deficit in a matter of two mistake pitches.
\nThe entire season has been spent with fingers crossed whenever the bullpen is called upon to perform, and innings like the eighth against Arizona State are the reasons why. Leadoff walk, sacrifice, stolen base, fielder\u2019s choice\u2014a run scored, just like that. A single led to a pitching change, and after a wild pitch put a pair of runners in scoring position, a two-run triple effectively ended the game.
\nThe Tigers spent all game wisely playing small ball to try to score runs. They had two sacrifices and went deep into at-bats on a regular basis.
\nIn the end, however, it was the long ball that won it for the Sun Devils, and then they utilized small ball to increase the cushion. Offensive versatility won this game for Arizona State, and a lack of power\u2014at least in this particular contest\u2014sent Clemson to the brink of elimination.
\nAny of these factors could be pointed to as the root cause of Friday\u2019s loss, but the issues are bigger than that. One statistic\u2014more appropriately stated, it\u2019s a group of stats\u2014can both explain this loss and explain what has become a familiar refrain for Clemson fans, players, and coaches this season.
\nFriday\u2019s game marked the 36th time in 60 games Clemson exited the sixth inning within three runs of the lead. This margin is important because it constitutes a hold or save situation.
\nIn 17 of those games, the Tigers have been ahead after six innings\u2014just as they were against the Sun Devils. Clemson\u2019s record in those games is 11-6, meaning the Tigers are able to hold fewer than two-thirds of close late-game leads.
\nIn 11 tie games after six frames, the Tigers are 3-8. They are 1-7 when trailing after six innings, with the lone win coming in that insane contest against Furman when everything anyone ever learned about baseball went out the window.
\nIn all, Clemson is 15-21 in games with margins of three or fewer runs after six innings, and the Tigers are an even 14-14 when they are ahead or tied in the game. This lack of closeability, we\u2019ll call it\u2014I\u2019m not above making up words to drive home a point\u2014can be caused by any of the issues above.
\nRunners getting caught on the bases, fielding errors (Friday\u2019s game was clean, for the record), starters giving up late runs, bullpen issues, lack of clutch hitting\u2014if that won-loss record applies to your baseball team, chances are you suffer from all of these at some point.
\nClemson has not blown a lead greater than three runs after six innings this season, but the Tigers have blown too many little ones. Of those six losses, five of them have come in the past 19 games\u2014a testament to how close the team has been to very good this season.
\nIn short, I don\u2019t know exactly what element(s) caused the Tigers to lose on Friday. We\u2019ll sum it up by calling it \u201ccloseability\u201d. The bad news is that in the NCAA Tournament, you have to win close games like this. You have to protect close leads. You have to break late ties in your favor.
\nIf not, you\u2019re going home. Clemson is now one game away from that fate. I\u2019d suggest being ahead by at least four runs heading into the seventh from now on.
\nGod Bless!
\nWQ<\/p>\n